Each indicators carried by Ttoralozma the Interior and its extensions regional and Arab predict this. Perhaps the assassination of military commander Imad Mughniyeh, Hezbollah stronger those indicators and the most serious indication although not the only one of them.Let's look in some detail at the panoramic picture of the Lebanese scene :
1 - Arab initiative blocked prospects in the best description of it and impossible at worst execution , as long as the model of U.S. officials , David Satterfield declare that they are not only with the Arab initiative under the election of the President of the Republic ' immediately ' . Makes clear that the U.S. administration is unwilling , but refusing to grant the Lebanese opposition any real gains in power in the period in which the gray screening political and military choices that lie ahead major region in the next few months .
2 - indoor situation is governed by the highest degree of sectarian tension expresses itself in civil frequent clashes between the public March 8 (Shiite) and the public March 14 ( Sunni ) . Coverage do not work here on naming things a spade , do not reduce the risk of this confrontation and vowed data for spiritual peaks , he was calling it likely that the risk of the outbreak of sectarian strife exceeded the potential to prevent .
3 - He vowed withdrawals from Arab diplomatic « Lebanese arena is initiated by Saudi Arabia's warning to his subjects , followed by Kuwait after threat embassy in the bombing. Does not work here also appeal to the President of the Higher Islamic Shiite Council Sheikh Abdul Amir Qabalan Kingdom « who stood with Lebanon » to reconsider its move , and reassure the former deputy outspoken Nasser Qandil to nationals of countries that may be governments « متآمرة » resistance « that no bearer of burdens shall other » . Just as no benefit sincere appeal by the President of the Parliament Nabih Berri , the State of Kuwait , vowing to protect the embassy and diplomats « if necessary the use of police of the House of Representatives as well as other security forces .
4 - separation of speeches media witnessed by the Martyrs' Square in the third anniversary of the martyrdom of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri on the speech delivered by Secretary General of the « Hezbollah » Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah at the funeral of Imad Mughniyeh and the option « open war » which declared readiness of his party to move where the will of Israel's open war « outside the natural boundaries of the battle . Scene mode Thursday, February 14 (February ) to Lebanon in the framework for real image unequivocally no ambiguity : There is a section of the Lebanese believes that Lebanon led قسطه of the Arab-Israeli conflict is no longer acceptable to remain or return an open arena for this conflict in light of calm all fronts other . There is another section of the Lebanese can not see Lebanon outside the framework of this conflict , even on a temporary basis pending the option settles « opposition » English for a clearer picture of the mechanisms of conflict in the next phase does not assess an account to get out practically all the Arabs of this conflict . Per team here justifications and arguments and debate in this option is right Omak has become an exercise in futility in light of the overall alienation experienced by the Lebanese sects letters of sectarian leaders .
5 - the emergence of tone « divorce » for the first time after the Civil War as an option forced or « the most odious wife » to the impossibility of cohabitation after today between two visions contradictory entirely to the identity of Lebanon and its role through them all from MP Walid Jumblatt and Nasrallah more than once.
6 - continuing operations of arms and extend the scope of the islands of security in more than one area of the Lebanese and the emergence of arms openly and used repeatedly in confrontations eligibility has become almost daily in the absence of any ability to adjust or desire to be set in a series of letters and messages of anti taken from the street and means of delivery, and more bloody. Indicate here the events of the Mar Mikhael area and top of the spring and clashes the farm and Nuwayri to old seam lines and the introduction of new lines in overlapping sectarian civil environments , more dangerous and deadly than the ' Green Line ' which draw a border war 's first two years in 1975-1976.
7 - paralysis of state institutions from the Presidency to the Council of Representatives and the government and the interruption of communication and dialogue between political leaders and confined to exclusive meetings sponsored by the Arab requires access Fords and tours Amr Moussa has not yet resulted in any progress.
According to here the reference to ' advice ' spokesman Gen. Michel Aoun opposition to Moses to wait to come to Beirut if you do not carry ' new ' Arab peace initiative out of the bottleneck.
8 - Segmentation Arab - Arab Btglyate Saudi - Syrian or interruption of communication on the line « O - O » as he calls Berri , is shifting to the complete break - at the gates of Damascus summit , and signals strong for a boycott of Saudi and Egyptian summit , تسلبها of these two Arab Wazznin which measured ' success ' Tops their attendance and participation . Highlights here Syrian insistence on the separation of the summit and any other benefits ( the Lebanese presidency ) and to hold « those who attended .
Confronted with these details came the assassination of Imad Mughniyeh in Damascus and threats exchanged between « Hezbollah » and Iran on the one hand and Israel on the other hand , and modern Iranian Party My God that the blood of the singer Starkh « the beginning of the demise of Israel » and hint Israeli tongue Ehud Olmert « that Israel has the power to deter others should know » , (a reference to the nuclear arsenal ? ) to put the entire region on the supervisor of the crater explosion at any moment .
Needless to say, the Lebanese civil wars look like « unnecessary as not necessary if a spark of the Great War broke out which strongly believes that it will exceed the ' natural limits ' of the battle in southern Lebanon ( and east ) and in the besieged Gaza Strip .
Valmnaah Interior Albannanahdd these wars equal to zero at best and tend to below zero in the worst estimate .
The next war that all preparations have been completed will be , if destined to fall , more destructive immeasurably from the war in July 2006 and will re - melting of the Arab region and the Middle East as a whole under the influence of the massive fire .
The dispute between the Lebanese this time on the « participation » and « veto » and « consensus president » will no longer have justification least because Lebanon, as we knew would become « a good memory » in conversations Lebanese or left them on his land , and in the minimum God wide !
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